Fuerzas Armadas y conflictos de la zona, desde Marruecos hasta Iran. Israel y el Mundo Árabe. El Problema Palestino. La Guerra de Irak. La primavera árabe.
Yorktown escribió:NBC news reports that Egypt president will resign; CIA chief says 'strong likelihood' that Mubarak will resign Thursday night; Egypt PM tells BBC that Mubarak 'may step down'.
Claro que...conociendome a mis clásicos, just wait and see.
Saludos Cordiales a Todos ...
Estimado Yorktown, así es, justamente esperaremos y veremos ... ahorita mismo en la señal de la digital web de vtv, transmitiendo un programa de telesur está dedicado a Egipto y la periodista dice "se va, no se va" ...
Supuestamente ya los jefes del partido político de gobierno afirman que Mubarak se dirigirá a la nación y esta noche ¿según la hora de quién? renunciará.
El ministro egipcio de Información asegura que el presidente Mubarak «definitivamente no va a dimitir», informa Reuters
Pues no se va al final, al menos por las buenas.
Si no es por las buenas es por choque de experiencias! o sea, por las no buenas ... puesto que lo que la mayoría de la población decida es lo que es, en eso se basa en esencia la democracia: "Un gobierno del pueblo, por el pueblo y para el pueblo" y la voluntad del pueblo no lo acompaña.
¿Cómo será el desenlace? ahí no especulo, pues es el pueblo egipcio quien decidirá.
Esta situación le abre la puerta a la persuasión de fuerzas islámicas radicales anti-occidentales.
Los mismos hilos que mueven desde la Comisión Europea o desde los gobiernos europeos (aunque, la verdad, lo que diga la UE, con Lady Ashton a la cabeza, le resbala a la mitad del mundo).
Esperamos y vimos... ¡jo, lo que hemos v visto! Vivir para ver. Cuando todos daban por muerto a Mubarak, sale en la televisión y... como si la cosa no fuera con él.
JoeLewis escribió:...CIA, ¿no te cansas a veces de equivocarte siempre?
Quizá fuera otro esfuerzo para ponerle presión a Mubarak... aunque, la verdad, es que en los buenos tiempos, los servicios secretos sólo se atrevían a hablar de la salida de un presidente cuando ya había un helicóptero esperando a recogerlo en el patio del palacio presidencial.
---
Hay un par de cosas que me ha llamado la atención de la declaración de Mubarak: La manía de llamarles "hijos" a los egipcios (mal síntoma; eso es costumbre de los que se consideran "padres patrios" indispensables).
La otra es la referencia al papel de las "gloriosas Fuerzas Armadas" como garante de la transición... o algo así he creído entender a la "traductora" que ha puesto TVE (¡¡¡qué poco se fusila a los traductores de televisión!!!).
Esperamos y vimos... ¡jo, lo que hemos v visto! Vivir para ver. Cuando todos daban por muerto a Mubarak, sale en la televisión y... como si la cosa no fuera con él.
Como decía, me conozco a mis clásicos.
El de allá y los de acá.
We, the people...
¡Sois todos un puñado de socialistas!. (Von Mises)
Por un lado Suleiman ya ha dejado claro hasta donde está dispuesto a ceder: los 5 puntos de reforma de la Constitución que anunció Mubarak. Considera que con eso los protestantes deben darse por satisfechos:
"2138: Full quote from Mr Suleiman: "The 25 January movement has succeeded in making a change in the party of democracy, history has begun. Constitutional decisions have been taken, commissions were formed to implement what the president decided in terms of directives in his 1 February speech. What the president announced today stresses once again his national feeling and his siding with the legitimate demands of the people and his commitment to the many pledges he made in the past. It also proves his awareness of the seriousness of the situation that Egypt is going through. The president had put the supreme interests of the people above everything else."
Mientras tanto, se dice que la gente va hacia la televisión oficial egipcia:
"2147: First reaction from the US - White House spokesman Robert Gibbs says President Obama will meet his national security team at the White House on Thursday"
"2227: Witnesses in Egyptian Rafah say an Egyptian security forces facility came under attack from local Bedouins and there is an ongoing gunfire, but no news of any casualties, reports the BBC's Jon Donnison in Gaza City."
El-Baradei pide ¡¡¡la intervención del Ejército!!!
"2233: Mohamed ElBaradei tweets: "Egypt will explode. Army must save the country now.""
Algunos piensan que hay una división en el Ejército. Por un lado los que hicieron el comunicado diciendo que la gente iba a tener lo que quería. Por otro lado, Mubarak, Suleiman et al., tan militares como los otros ... Seguramente estarán discutiendo quien debe ser el que lleve el país al ritmo que quiere las FF.AA, pero lo que está claro es que, sea quien sea el nombre que dice gobernar, es el Ejército quien controla el poder en el país.
Ummm, lamento discrepar, creo que mueven los hilos para que salga Mubarak pero no necesariamente para dar vía libre a lo que quieran los Egipcios, imáginate que los Egipcios quiera un estado Talibán?.
Red Alert: The Egyptian Military's Options February 10, 2011
The decision by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak not to resign seems to have shocked both the Egyptian military and Washington. CIA Director Leon Panetta spoke earlier as if his resignation was assured and a resolution to the crisis was guaranteed. Sources in Cairo spoke the same way. How the deal came apart, or whether Mubarak decided that transferring power to Vice President Omar Suleiman was sufficient cannot be known. What is known is that Mubarak did not do what was expected.
This now creates a massive crisis for the Egyptian military. Its goal is not to save Mubarak but to save the regime founded by Gamal Abdel Nasser. We are now less than six hours from dawn in Cairo. The military faces three choices. The first is to stand back, allow the crowds to swell and likely march to the presidential palace and perhaps enter the grounds. The second choice is to move troops and armor into position to block more demonstrators from entering Tahrir Square and keep those in the square in place. The third is to stage a coup and overthrow Mubarak.
The first strategy opens the door to regime change as the crowd, not the military, determines the course of events. The second creates the possibility of the military firing on the protesters, which have not been anti-military to this point. Clashes with the military (as opposed to the police, which have happened) would undermine the military’s desire to preserve the regime and the perception of the military as not hostile to the public.
That leaves the third option, which is a coup. Mubarak will be leaving office under any circumstances by September. The military does not want an extraconstitutional action, but Mubarak’s decision leaves the military in the position of taking one of the first two courses, which is unacceptable. That means military action to unseat Mubarak as the remaining choice.
One thing that must be borne in mind is that whatever action is taken must be taken in the next six or seven hours. As dawn breaks over Cairo, it is likely that large numbers of others will join the demonstrators and that the crowd might begin to move. The military would then be forced to stand back and let events go where they go, or fire on the demonstrators. Indeed, in order to do the latter, troops and armor must move into position now, to possibly overawe the demonstrators.
Thus far, the military has avoided confrontation with the demonstrators as much as possible, and the demonstrators have expressed affection toward the army. To continue that policy, and to deal with Mubarak, the options are removing him from office in the next few hours or possibly losing control of the situation. But if this is the choice taken, it must be taken tonight so that it can be announced before demonstrations get under way Feb. 11 after Friday prayers.
It is of course possible that the crowds, reflecting on Mubarak’s willingness to cede power to Suleiman, may end the crisis, but it does not appear that way at the moment, and therefore the Egyptian military has some choices to make
Lo copio tal cual de Stratfor, que hay que registrarse para leerlo.
We, the people...
¡Sois todos un puñado de socialistas!. (Von Mises)
Yorktown escribió:Red Alert: The Egyptian Military's Options February 10, 2011
The decision by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak not to resign seems to have shocked both the Egyptian military and Washington. CIA Director Leon Panetta spoke earlier as if his resignation was assured and a resolution to the crisis was guaranteed. Sources in Cairo spoke the same way. How the deal came apart, or whether Mubarak decided that transferring power to Vice President Omar Suleiman was sufficient cannot be known. What is known is that Mubarak did not do what was expected.
This now creates a massive crisis for the Egyptian military. Its goal is not to save Mubarak but to save the regime founded by Gamal Abdel Nasser. We are now less than six hours from dawn in Cairo. The military faces three choices. The first is to stand back, allow the crowds to swell and likely march to the presidential palace and perhaps enter the grounds. The second choice is to move troops and armor into position to block more demonstrators from entering Tahrir Square and keep those in the square in place. The third is to stage a coup and overthrow Mubarak.
The first strategy opens the door to regime change as the crowd, not the military, determines the course of events. The second creates the possibility of the military firing on the protesters, which have not been anti-military to this point. Clashes with the military (as opposed to the police, which have happened) would undermine the military’s desire to preserve the regime and the perception of the military as not hostile to the public.
That leaves the third option, which is a coup. Mubarak will be leaving office under any circumstances by September. The military does not want an extraconstitutional action, but Mubarak’s decision leaves the military in the position of taking one of the first two courses, which is unacceptable. That means military action to unseat Mubarak as the remaining choice.
One thing that must be borne in mind is that whatever action is taken must be taken in the next six or seven hours. As dawn breaks over Cairo, it is likely that large numbers of others will join the demonstrators and that the crowd might begin to move. The military would then be forced to stand back and let events go where they go, or fire on the demonstrators. Indeed, in order to do the latter, troops and armor must move into position now, to possibly overawe the demonstrators.
Thus far, the military has avoided confrontation with the demonstrators as much as possible, and the demonstrators have expressed affection toward the army. To continue that policy, and to deal with Mubarak, the options are removing him from office in the next few hours or possibly losing control of the situation. But if this is the choice taken, it must be taken tonight so that it can be announced before demonstrations get under way Feb. 11 after Friday prayers.
It is of course possible that the crowds, reflecting on Mubarak’s willingness to cede power to Suleiman, may end the crisis, but it does not appear that way at the moment, and therefore the Egyptian military has some choices to make
Lo copio tal cual de Stratfor, que hay que registrarse para leerlo.
Te felicito por tu suscripción a informaciones exclusivas, pero te pido para los analfabetas de idiomas como yo, si por favor puedes decir, en sintesis, no pido más ... ¿qué es lo que dice acerca de las fuerzas militares egipcias, acuarteladas, en estado de alerta?
El Cairo.- El canal de televisión Al Arabiya reportó este viernes que el presidente Hosni Mubarak y su familia salieron de El Cairo hacia un destino desconocido desde una base militar en los suburbios. No dio una fuente.
Al Arabiya había reportado inicialmente "noticias" de que Mubarak y su familia habían dejado Egipto.
Mubarak renuncia tras 18 días de revueltas y 30 años en el poder
Mubarak ha cedido el poder al Ejército.
Minutos antes, el secretario general del partido gobernante renunciaba a su puesto porque "Egipto necesita nuevos partidos".
