Estimados todos:
Experten escribió:... ya es motivo y razón suficiente para demandarles, cuando menos, que por su propia seguridad, eviten hacer estupideces como instaurar un gobierno islamista.
Todo lo contrario, hay que mantenerse firme en este momento más que nunca, Egipto necesita un estado laico y democrático, todo lo contrario a este precepto, supone un riesgo para ellos y para toda la sociedad occidental en general...
A pesar de las noticias alarmantes, creo que la realidad es que por mucho que algunos islamistas insistan en liderar la revuelta, los manifestantes se resisten a mostrar signos de radicalización religiosa o política. A estas alturas, en otras revueltas musulmanas al estilo Hamas ya se habría terminado las existencias de banderas norteamericanas, israelíes o europeas, quemadas en las manifestaciones.
Por eso dudo de que el objetivo sea sustituir la República Árabe de Egipto por la República Islámica de Egipto. Más bien quisieran ser la República Libre Árabe de Egipto.
edgar_nuevo escribió: Nos vamos dirigiendo a una encrucijada en la civilización ... la apertura mental de la cultura del Islam; así como tolerancia por parte de Occidente o caos y guerras ! Precisamente por Intolerancia e Intereses de Dominio y Poder !
¿Tolerancia por parte de Occidente? ¿Más?
Antes de anunciar una nueva tercera guerra mundial sería interesante considerar que los motivos de las protestas musulmanas son dos: la quiebra de los estados que han subsidiado productos básicos cuando no han podido afrontar la subida de las materias primas y, sobretodo, el hartazgo contra gobiernos vitalicios y corruptos.
A día de hoy, y ya van unas semanas de revueltas, a nadie en las protestas se le ocurre usar la excusa de la intolerancia o prepotencia occidental para manifestarse. Al contrario, los países occidentales se han apresurado a cortar amarras con los regímenes afectados.
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Otra cosa: ¿Qué se puede esperar del Ejército en Egipto? ¿Cuál será el siguiente paso? ¿Por qué hay tantos generales en retiro?
Al mirar la prensa internacional, hay cierto consenso en determinar que las claves del "dejar hacer" del ejército en Egipto.
1. Los militares son un poder económico (o más específicamente, el alto mando) que controlan parcelas importantes en Egipto, libres del control fiscal o civil. No estarían por acelerar un cambio político sin antes asegurarse de que continuarán con este poder económico.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5dfe66ba-2f08-11e0-88ec-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1D2ks61Th
"...the army will seek to preserve its control over its own internal governance and protect its reputed economic “empire”. This is considerably more modest in volume than is commonly believed, and has probably shrunk in proportion to a national economy that has grown by more than 3 per cent annually since 2003. However, although a few generals are rumoured to have become rich, the main purpose of ensuring a separate income stream that is off-limits to government auditors or parliamentary oversight is to ameliorate the impact of a rapidly privatising economy on the living standards of officers."
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/01/egypt.military.protesters/index.html
"..."Mubarak came after Sadat who came after Nasser," Katulis said, referring to past presidents Anwar Sadat and Gamal Abdel Nasser. "They were all military men who had the support of the military elite. They control a good bit of the security as well as the economy."..."
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-01-31/egypt-s-military-tightens-control-over-regime.html
"...“Egypt’s government is not so much a Mubarak government as it is a military government,” said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based policy group. “Generals and retired generals control much of the government and much of the economy, and they would stand to lose a great deal if Mubarak were deposed.”..."
2. La ayuda norteamericana. Para algunos puede ser un factor importante, como dicen en el artículo de FT citado antes.
"...the army will resist radical shifts in foreign policy, especially vis-à-vis Israel, not least because of the risk to US assistance, which is crucial for an army that is heavily dependent on US military hardware and technology and on the assured supply of spares, training and know-how. The behind-the-scenes role that it is no doubt playing cannot but be prompted by a desire to prevent changes that might destabilise the cold peace with Israel and jeopardise the special relationship with the US military..."
Otros dicen que, aún siendo un factor a considerar, la ayuda militar norteamericana (y la política de paz fría con Israel), no compra ni vende voluntades dentro del ejército.
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-fg-egypt-white-house-20110203,0,6235287,full.story
"..."The dollar amount of the military assistance doesn't allow us to buy and sell the Egyptian military," said Michele Dunne, a former State Department and National Security Council aide, who once served at the U.S. Embassy in Cairo..."
Quizá por todo esto, la opción de los militares es que haya cambios. Pero ordenados.
Si es así, el cambio puede estar diseñado por el alto mando, del que dicen que hablan con Mubarak para que se retire, no vaya a ser que todo se desmadre y acabe como Ceaucescu:
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,14803927,00.html
""There are strong rumors that the military, the upper officers, are in consultation with still President Hosni Mubarak, in which they are suggesting that an interim government should take power," Ismail-Hafez said. ..."
http://www.metrolic.com/egyptian-army-to-mubarak-we-dont-want-you-to-end-like-nicolae-ceausescu-go-in-peace-159420/
"The Guardian reports that the Egyptian army has strongly advised the president to stand down and leave office.
According to the British daily, the army said: “We loved you 30 years ago. We don’t want to humiliate you. We don’t want you to end like [Romanian president] Nicolae Ceausescu. Go in peace.”..."
Por eso, algunos consideran (y yo coincido con ellos), que no se llegará a las elecciones de septiembre ni se permitirá que ningún opositor tome el poder. Unos creen que será un general:
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/01/egypt.military.protesters/index.html
""Who's going to be in the office of the presidency? It's going to be someone in the military or close to the military. It's not going to be (opposition leader Mohamed) ElBaradei. It's not going to be any of these opposition groups," Stacher said."
Otros consideran que el movimiento vendría de los militares más jóvenes, que no le deben ni apoyan tanto a Mubarak. como se comenta en Los Angeles Times.
"Even if Egypt's military leaders wanted to shut down the protests, there is no guarantee that orders by senior officers to take action against the protesters would be carried out by rank-and-file soldiers, whose sympathies may lie more with demonstrators than with Mubarak..."
Queda un punto que resolver: ¿Cuántos generales en retiro hay en Egipto?
... Casi todas las crónicas citan a uno... O son miles y todos están en las manifestaciones, o son pocos, pero muy parlanchines con los periodistas.
http://www.businessinsider.com/will-the-egyptian-army-remove-mubarak-2011-2
"A former general from the Egyptian secret services told to Al Jazeera that he “expects the army will act to remove Mubarak from power … Mubarak is ready to burn the country”.
And this, ... An unnamed former Egyptian intelligence general quoted by Al Jazeera has stated he expects the army to aid in removing President Hosni Mubarak from office amid protests turned violent again Wednesday.
“I expect the army will act to remove Mubarak from power … Mubarak is ready to burn the country,” said the ex-high ranking security officer according to the Al Jazeera live blog on events in Egypt."
http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Anti-government-protests-Egypt-Egyptian-army-retired-general-refused-provide-name-but-said-he/ss/events/wl/012511egyptprotest
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8301839/PICandPUBPLS-Egypt-crisis-the-generals-may-not-be-open-to-Washingtons-persuasion.html
"One retired general, Mohammed Khadri Said, now an adviser to the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, said the army had been forced into its current embarrassing situation, sitting between competing mobs of stone-throwing youths, because of the collapse of internal security caused by the withdrawal from the fray of the police... "
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_9386000/9386007.stm
"The Egyptian Army has moved "decisively on the side of the [anti-government] protesters" according to a retired general in Cairo.
Correspondent Jon Leyne spoke to the retired general who is in close contact with the tank crews policing the protests in Tarhir Square.
He was told that the Egyptian army was now willing to open fire on violent pro-government protesters and predicted that President Mubarak would be out of power by tomorrow...."
Si mis sospechas son ciertas, Egipto debe contar con más generales retirados que militares en activo.
Saludos.
