Vaya si lo pone fácil... vamos por partes:flanker33 escribió:Quizás lo ponga muy fácil...quizás no.
¿Y por qué cree que Kim, si piensa atacar a los EEUU en un futuro, va a detenerse por un ataque limitado ahora? ¿No es más lógico pensar que continuará armándose (todavía más convencido de ello por el propio ataque)? Lo que parece desprenderse de estas palabras de McMaster es que la opción que barajan para solucionar el tema, llegado el caso de tener que recurrir a una intervención militar, es que irían a por todas, ya que ni un bloqueo ni un ataque de precisión sirve para ello."There's not a 'precision strike' that solves the problem," McMaster, an Army lieutenant general, said at an event in Washington hosted by the Institute for the Study of War. "There's not a military blockade that can solve the problem. What we hope to do is avoid war, but we cannot discount that possibility."
Esto:In a disturbing assessment of the crisis sparked by Pyongyang's intensified nuclear missile testing, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) said combat would "not be surgical or short".
me hace pensar como podría ser ese ataque preventivo norcoreano ¿Con ataques convencionales contra las bases US en CdS y Japón? ¿Aun a riesgo de que estos países no hayan dado su visto bueno a un supuesto ataque norteamericano? ¿Guam? ¿Alaska incluso? ¿Con armas nucleares o químicas? ¿Una invasión de CdS?In the RUSI report, written by its deputy director general, Malcolm Chalmers, a number of ways a war could be started are set out, such as a pre-emptive strike by Pyongyang if it believed the US was planning a surprise attack.
A veces las cosas improbables, como una guerra en la península coreana, suceden.“I think you can get inadvertent war,” said Jim Walsh, a senior research associate in MIT’s Security Studies Program (SSP) and a nuclear security expert who has visited North Korea in the past. “It’s still an unlikely event,” he added. However, he also stated, “I would remind you that improbable events do happen. … I am more worried than I have been before.”
EEUU tiene que aceptar que CdN tiene armas nucleares, negociar y no esperar a que China arregle la situación.To keep the situation under control, the panel of three nuclear-security scholars said, the U.S. would do well to seek further diplomatic talks with North Korea. The U.S. should also reconcile itself to the fact that North Korea does have nuclear weapons and, for a variety of reasons, it must not expect China to address the situation decisively.
La desnuclearización de Cdn es fantasía pero la disuasión puede funcionar.“The bad news is that denuclearization is a fantasy,” ...... “The good news is, deterrence can work.”
Nada de decir un secretario de estado algo y el Presidente desautorizarlo al poco rato. Que si no queremos un cambio de régimen y a los días, que "van a durar poco", que tenemos canales de negociación y podemos, y al poco, no perdamos el tiempo en negociaciones, etc... porque el riesgo de malinterpretar al "enemigo" por parte norcoreana, puede tener consecuencias muy graves.“We need to tighten our message and be consistent and coherent.”
La opción militar no debería ser usada por el elevado riesgo, aunque como dicen más arriba, no se puede excluir que suceda.“Denuclearization by force is a very risky proposition and it’s not an experiment we want to run,”
Las sanciones y la presión China, no van a resolver el problema.“not a big believer that sanctions are going to solve this problem,” given North Korea’s current capabilities, and Fravel emphasized that China is also not likely to be interested in having regime change occur in North Korea. Among other reaons, he noted, “the collapse of any more communist countries would be a great concern for China.”
Negociaciones para limitar el arsenal norcoreano y los ejercicios US en al peninsula.further talks with North Korea might help limit the extent of North Korea’s arsenal and reduce the possibility that U.S.-led military exercises around the Korean peninsula could trigger a military incident that escalates to nuclear use — which, the scholars observed, seems by far the most likely route to a catastrophic exchange between the countries.
Cosas incontgrolables como los rumores de la semana pasada sobre una evacuación de personal no esencial norteamericano, pueden ser muy peligrosos para un inicio por error de las hostilidades.that false news reports circulated last weekend, stating that the U.S. was advising nonessential personnel to depart the Korean peninsula. That kind of report, Sagan noted, could be mistakenly interpreted as a prelude to military action.
“I’m worried about this, even though I think it is unlikely,” Sagan said. And, as Walsh added, “Certain leaders in the world pay more attention to news reports than to their advisors.”
With so many unresolved issues at stake, Walsh said, “That uncertainty makes me nervous, and gnaws at me.”
Saludos."Many people have talked about military options being unimaginable regarding North Korea," Harris said at an annual forum in Singapore.
"Folks, I must imagine the unimaginable. And what is unimaginable to me are North Korean nuclear-tipped missiles delivered in Los Angeles, in Honolulu, in Seoul, in Tokyo, in Sydney, in Singapore," he said.
US President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis "do not come to me and ask for diplomatic or economic solutions," he added, speaking at an event organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"They come to me and ask for hard power options and that's what I provide them."
Se está especulando que estos días, Pyongyang lleve a cabo algún otro tipo de provocación con motivo de esas maniobras...veremos."The U.S. is running amok by introducing under our nose the targets we have set as primary ones. The U.S. should expect that it would face unimaginable strike at an unimaginable time," the agency said in a statement carried by the Korean Central News Agency in English.
CIA Director Mike Pompeo said the United States has to act as if North Korea is on the verge of being able to strike it with a missile and act accordingly -- and that President Donald Trump is ready to do so.
"From a US policy perspective, we ought to behave as if we are on the cusp of them achieving that objective," Pompeo said Thursday at a security forum held by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "They are so far along in that, it's now a matter of thinking about how do you stop the final step.""Whether it happens on Tuesday or a month from Tuesday, we're in a time where the President has concluded that we have a global effort to ensure that [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Un does not obtain that capacity," Pompeo continued.
The CIA chief spoke at the forum shortly before national security adviser H.R. McMaster, who also said the President wasn't prepared to accept a nuclear Pyongyang.
Pues si la aceptación y la contención de una CdN con ICBM no es aceptable para el gobierno de EEUU, y Pyongyang no cede (lo cual no parece probable a día de hoy)...¿que escenario se plantea para dentro de unas semanas o meses?Asked at Thursday's event about the threat posed by North Korea, McMaster said that Trump will not accept a nuclear North Korea that threatens the US, putting the administration in a "race" to resolve the increasingly tense standoff before it devolves into a military confrontation.
"He's not going to accept this regime threatening the United States with nuclear weapons," McMaster said. "There are those who would say, well, why not accept and deter. Well, accept and deter is unacceptable."
"So this puts us in a situation where we are in a race to resolve this short of military action," McMaster said. "Everybody knows it. We all know it. ... Our allies and partners know it. China knows it. Russia knows it."
¿En qué DEFCON estarán los buques de guerra de la US Navy hoy?
Andrés Eduardo González escribió:Lo pregunto porque en medios colombianos han informado que los buques de guerra de Estados Unidos están en alerta de guerra....
Supongo que debe ser por una noticia aparecida estos días sobre que un destructor de la USN que navegaba cerca de la peninsula coreana cuando se lanzó el último misil norcoreano, recibió una WARNO, u orden de alerta para lanzar Tomahawks. Y aunque suena muy alarmante, parece que no lo es tanto, si no una señal de estar preparados por si llega una orden de "arriba" para realizar un lanzamiento de misiles, pero no significa que se fuera a llevar a cabo.Andrés Eduardo González escribió:Lo pregunto porque en medios colombianos han informado que los buques de guerra de Estados Unidos están en alerta de guerra....
Saludos.American international affairs news service Foreign Policy (FP) reports a US navy guided missile destroyer was in September issued a flash WARNO. The naval parlance translates to “warning order”.
A WARNO is essentially a battle-stations alarm: be prepared to take instant action.
But it does not necessarily mean Washington is preparing to attack Kim Jong-un.
It's a warning to be ready for anything, with fingers on triggers.
sergiopl escribió:Unless we're parked in San Diego Bay, you're at war every time you step on this boat.
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